Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://repositorio.ufla.br/jspui/handle/1/38161
Title: A distribuição normal-assimétrica como modelo para produtividade de milho aplicada ao seguro agrícola
Keywords: Séries temporais
Milho - Produtividade
Seguro agrícola
Time series
Corn - Productivity
Agricultural insurance
Issue Date: Oct-2014
Publisher: Sociedade Brasileira de Economia e Sociologia Rural
Citation: SANTOS, C. O.; SCALON, J. D.; OZAKI, V. A. A distribuição normal-assimétrica como modelo para produtividade de milho aplicada ao seguro agrícola. Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural, Piracicaba, v. 52, n. 4, p. 725-742, out./dez. 2014.
Abstract: The crop insurance sold in Brazil is estimated using the average of the municipal agricultural productivity of the last four or five years. Many researchers believe that using a probabilistic model for the distribution of agricultural productivity is a better methodology for this purpose. This study advocates using the skew-normal distribution as an alternative to the normal distribution to model the distribution of agricultural productivity in Brazil. We analyzed series of corn yield from 1981 to 2007, in 30 counties in Paraná State, Brazil. The skew-normal distribution showed better fits than the normal distribution for the vast majority of the counties, and, consequently, led to better estimates for the expected payment of crop insurance.
URI: http://repositorio.ufla.br/jspui/handle/1/38161
Appears in Collections:DEX - Artigos publicados em periódicos



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