Efeitos do ambiente institucional sobre o comércio de produtos agropecuários entre Brasil e União Europeia, 1995 a 2016

Abstract

The objective of this work was to analyze the effects of the institutional environment on the commercial transactions of agricultural products between Brazil and member countries of the European Union. The data used were related to the bilateral relationship between Brazil (exporter) and the 28 countries that make up the European Union (importer) in the period of 21 years (1995 - 2016). The analysis was performed through the estimation of gravitational models, in which, in addition to the control variables characteristic of the model used, variables that represent the institutional environment quality of the importing country and the exporting country were inserted, variables that represent the institutional distance between Brazil and the European countries analyzed and, finally, the non-tariff measures imposed by the European Union on Brazil. The method used to estimate the equations was the PoissonPseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) model. It verified the fixed effect by country and time, that is, binary variables are used to analyze the individual effect that countries and time used in the research, promote on the variables of investigation. The results indicated that the quality of the institutional environment of the importing country was more relevant, that is, these countries sought to carry out transactions with countries that also have structured institutions, since they would offer greater reliability in the proper development of the transactions carried out. However, the institutional quality of the exporting country was significant only when considering the fixed effect by country. This fact can be justified by the research object (agricultural products) and the period studied, to which Brazil presented instability in the indicators that make up the institutional quality variable. The institutional distance between Brazil and the European Union was significant only when considering the fixed effect by country and the fixed effect for time together, this result suggests that the institutional distance between Brazil and the European Union acted to raise the transaction costs, reducing trade in agricultural products. Finally, the variables of non-tariff measures were significant only when considering the fixed effect per country, of the four measures used, three were significant and presented ambiguous effects, characteristic of such measure, in this sense it is possible to infer that such measures are not necessarily because many of them function as quality and trust improvements among those involved. In general, the results indicate that an improvement in the institutional environment acts to promote improvements in the performance of the agricultural sector, to improve supply of raw materials, quality of inputs and greater access to credit, in addition to reducing the uncertainties inherent in the same.