Estimativa da oferta de feijão, na microrregião homogênea-135 da Chapada Diamantina Setentrional, do Estado da Bahia

Abstract

This work was carried out with the general objective of estimating bean supply in "Micro-Região HomogÍnea-135, in the state of Bahia, and some specific ones, as the follwings: a) to estimate either the elastieity-price or the çro_s_s elasticities for both cultivated área and yield. b) to analyse the response of the amount produced, cultivated área, and the yield to several factors. c) to estimate the price-elastieity of suplly at both short and long term. Time serie data concerned to the period from 1965 to 1977 inssued by FGV, FIBGE and SEPLANTEC were used in this work . Estimations were made through the least squares method . The statistical model was made up of three equations. The equation of cultivated área was formulated in such a way that the cultivated área was determined simultaneously with the yield. The equation of yield was formulated in such a way that bean yield was determined simultaneaously with the cultivated área. In order to evaluate this mod/1 equations of both cultivated área and yield were combined to make up an equation able to explain the produced amount. The main results were the followings: - bean price-elastieity for cultivate área: short run: - .22 long run : - .23 - cross-elasticity with the maize price-equal to .04. - bean price-elasticity for yield to . 58 - price-elasticity for produced aumount equal to . 37 The model sued explains, reasonably, the changes on the produced amount, the cultivated área and the yield, despite of the checked difference between the observed and the estimated values . Acoording to the results lither bean or corn on Chapada Diamantina Setentrional are complementary crops. On the other hand, to increase growth bean área growers react more to corn price change than to beans price. Considering that the elasticity-beans price for yield was positive and in absolute value greater than the cultiva ted área it is possible to conclude that the growers react more toward measures to increase the crop yield, when estimulated by the bean price. From these results we have found that a politics of guarantes of minimum price isn't sufficient to increase the production, one suggests, as its coadjuvant, a politics of provi sions of the factors of production. One still suggest other studies of suply in the region and also the studies of the risks and uncertainties in order to stimate the effects, of the climatices factors on the agricultural yield.