Climate change impact assessment in a tropical headwater basin

Abstract

Changes in precipitation and air temperature may produce different impacts on the hydrological regime, compromising water supply. This study focuses on climate change impacts in the Verde River Basin (VRB), a tropical headwater basin in southeast Brazil, located in the state of Minas Gerais. The Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) was calibrated and validated in the Verde River Basin. The downscaling (Eta Regional Climate Model, at 20-km resolution) of three Global Circulation Models (CanESM2, HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5) were used to drive the VIC for a historical baseline (1961-2005) and three time-slices (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2099), under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The scenarios were used as input in the hydrological model after bias correction. The hydrological model (VIC) showed satisfactory statistical performance in calibration and validation, with CNS varying from 0.77 to 0.85 for daily and monthly discharges; however, it overestimated some peak flows and underestimated the recession flows. Multi-model ensemble means predict increases of the minimum and maximum monthly average temperature for the investigated area at the end of the century. The Eta-CanESM2 indicated greater warming, mainly for RCP8.5 at the end the century, whereas Eta-HadGEM2-ES showed higher reduction in the precipitation for RCP4.5 at the beginning of the century and for RCP8.5 at the end the century, negatively impacting the evapotranspiration and discharge. Among the Regional Climate Models (RCMs), the Eta-MIROC5 showed minor changes in the components of the hydrological cycle. This study suggests that Global Circulation Models represent an additional uncertainty, which should be accounted for in the climate change impact assessment.