Modelos de nicho ecológico como ferramenta para a conservação do gênero Brachyteles (Spix, 1823), (Primates:Atelidae)

Abstract

Primates are mostly forest-dependent animals, and they are directly and indirectly affected by climate changes. Although these climate changes are a natural phenomenon, recognized by alternating periods of glaciations and interglaciations, human population has accelerated them in recent years. Ecological Niche Models have become a valuable tool for understanding how environmental variables interfere with patterns of distribution of biodiversity from the past to the present and help predict what might happen in the future to aid conservation decisions. In this context, we analyze the effects of climate on past, present and future suitability areas for the two Brachyteles primate species, popularly known as woolly spider monkeys. We analyze these areas through Ecological Niche Models with the Maxent program, version 3.4.1. We predict which areas functioned as climate refuges for each of the two species in the Last Interglacial (~ 120000 years ago), Last Glacial Maximum (~ 21000 years ago), Holocene (~ 6000 years ago), and Anthropocene (current) periods; the areas of climate suitability overlap between them. We indicate the Conservation Units (CUs) included in these areas of climate refuge, priority for the conservation of these primates. It was also indicated the CUs that are in the areas that have climatic suitability for both species, and studies on the distribution limits between the two species of muriquis are recommended. We anticipate models for the present and future under different gas emission scenarios (scenarios 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) for 2050 and 2070, with the consensus of 5 Global Circulation Models (GCMs). From there, analyze the expansion and shrinkage of climate suitability areas for each scenario, as well as indicate the Conservation Units within these areas, in order to maintain viable populations of the genus Brachyteles. We have identified areas of stability for the past that have been maintained to date, as well as areas that are climatically appropriate at present and in the future and the protected areas included in these areas that will be a priority for the management and conservation of the genus Brachyteles. We saw that there were contractions and expansions of climatic suitability areas for the two species over the glacial and interglacial periods that coincide with the current occurrence areas of the two Brachyteles species. For the future, forecasts are alarming, as both species will lose large areas of climate suitability even in optimistic scenarios. Both species on official threatened species lists could be further reduced due to the effects of climate change. Conservation Units are important for the protection of Brachyteles climate suitability areas, but most are small to maintain viable populations. Therefore, we recommend that efforts be directed to the creation, maintenance and connection of the UCs in order to play their functional role in the conservation of these primates.