Análise de dados de área aplicada a indicadores de seguridade rural para a cultura do café

Abstract

Brazil is the largest producer and exporter of coffee in the world, Minas Gerais is the main producer of the grain, responsible for more than 50\% of the national production in recent years. As any activity in the economic sector, the coffee activity carries some risks related to productivity and/or commercialization. One of the main forms of risk management and decrease is insurance contracting, although rural insurance is a poorly used mechanism used by farmers, accounting for only 1\% of the insurance market in Brazil. Considering the importance of coffee activity and the management of risks related to this activity, both in Brazil and Minas Gerais, this work aims to analyze how the municipalities of the largest coffee producing state of the country assure their crops and how crop protection correlates spatially with the protection of neighboring municipalities. To this end, two rural security indicators, PAS and VSH, were created to analyze spatial autocorrelation and coffee productivity between 2012 and 2016. The measurement of spatial autocorrelation occurs through the Moran global index I, detecting dependence spatial data in the analyzed years and through the local Moran I is detected the presence of spatial agglomerates, mostly presenting formation through the grouping of areas that present similarity, that is, in the years analyzed, the municipalities of Minas Gerais tended to behavior in relation to the value of the variable similar to neighboring municipalities. In turn, the variables showed a positive association with moderate degree. Through the results obtained in this work it is possible to verify that the study is important both for the insurers, in relation to the marketing of new Insurance Rural Contract, and for coffee producers, in relation to the protection of their crops.