Análise do comércio mundial de celulose e papel

Abstract

This study aimed at analyzing the international cellulose and paper market, taking into account the main exporting and importing countries, with the objective of estimating, for each market, the elasticity of substitution for the cellulose and paper, the own-price and cross-price elasticity in relation to the demand of such products, differenciated for country of origin. The model supposes that the international consumers separates the cellulose and/or paper according to the country of origin. In the case of the study of the cellulose market, the main importers were grouped the folowing importing regions: Europe, North America, Ásia and Rest ofWorld. For the cellulose market, the resuhs showed that the elasticities of substitution values were low for the considered markets, indicating that the imported cellulose from the United States, Canada, Finland, Sweeden, Portugal, Brazil and Rest ofWorld, presented a low substitutability. The total cellulose import demand of Europe, North America, Ásia and the Rest of the World was not sensibilyzed neither by the cellulose price nor byÚieper capita income variations, characterizing a inelastic demand in both cases, thus classifuing cellulose as na essential or necessary product. The demand fromEurope, North America andthe Rest fo the Worldfor the cellulose from the United States, Canada, Sweeden, Finland, Portugal and Brazil was inelastic. The Asian demand for this same cellulose was elastic. Europe and the Rest of the World showed negative cross-price elasticity, in other words, the imported cellulose from other countries are complementar/ products. North America and Ásia showed positive crow-price elasticity, in other words, they consider the cellulose produced in othercountries as substitute products. The net effect ofthe variation on theprice ofcellulose inanh country, over theamount ofcellulose thatgoes tothe region i depends onthe matching of values related to the elasticity ofsubstitution and the price elasticity of the total demand. The elasticity ofsubstitutionvalues were low for the markets taken into consideration. This showed a low substitutability among the papers adquired from the exporting countries. The total paper import demand of countries such as Germany, the United Kingdon, France, Belgium, Denamark, Switzerland, Spain, Japan and Austrália presented low sensibility towards the variations on the price andper capita income. This characterizes an inelastic demand for both cases ranking paper into thecondition ofbeing anessential ornecessary product.In the United States and Canada, the demand's price elasticity were of-0.774 and -0.959, respectively, and the demand's income elasticity were of1.901 and 2.687. therefore, for these two countries, the paper's total import demand showed far better sensibility in relation to the products income variations than to their price variations. In Italy, the price and income elasticity fo demand were of -1.052 and 1.030, respectively, implyingthat paper can be considered a superior product, forthe elasticities are superiorin relationto the unity. lhe paper import demand ofthe United Kingdon, Canada, the United States, Japan and Austrália was elastic. This demand was inelastic for Germany, France, Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Denamark, Switzerland and Spain. France and Italy presented negative cross-elasticity, i.e., the imported paper is considered complementary products. Germany, the United Kingdon, Netherlands, Belgium, Canada, the United States, Denamark, Switzerland, Spain, Japan and Austrália showed positive cross-elasticity, in other words, they consider the foreign paper as a substitute product. The net effect ofthe paper price variation in an h country, over the amount ofpaper that goes from country j to country i, depends on the matching matching ofvalues relatedto the elasticity ofsubstitution and the price elasticity ofthe total demand.