Estudos empíricos de fusõese aquisições no setor bancário brasileiro

Abstract

This research was conducted in order to identify the existence of occurrence patterns in mergers and acquisitions (M & A)processes in Brazilian financial institutions (acquirers and acquired), as well as the determinants of concentration and market stability. The study can be classified as descriptive and exploratory with a quantitative approach to the problem. The data used in this work refer to the Brazilian banking sector, they are between the years 1994 and 2015 and were obtained through Economática database, Central Bank, Ipeadata and KPMG. To achieve the goals, first was studied by means of multiple linear regression, the determinants of concentration and stability of the stock market. The results showed that the independent variables included in the models define and explain the behavior of the dependent, it is noteworthy, however, being the central theme of this work, the importance of the variable mergers and acquisitions (M & A) presented a direct and meaningful relationship with the increments the concentration and variability of the stock market returns. Subsequently sought to identify, by linear discriminant analysis (LDA), logistic regression (LR) and artificial neural networks (ANN), occurrence patterns of M & A operations in acquiring institutions. The patterns were studied in two stages, the first refers to the time in which the M & occurs, and the second in relation to the profile assumed by the institution strategies (acquired or acquirer). The results revealed that the economic and financial characteristics of the firm and market characteristics and economic are decisive for the occurrence of such strategies. It is noteworthy that the results found by the neural networks were more assertive than the other methods used, however, in an attempt to remedy the limitations of this method, proposed the use of a hybrid modeling with setting a priori the ADL and RL as so it is possible to make a preliminary study of the relationship between the variables included in the model. Then studied the determinants of M & A in the acquired institutions. Survival analysis methodology was employed in the economic and financial data in order to obtain a function of the risk of M & A. The results were mostly consistent with theory and with the initial expectations. Finally, it emphasizes the importance and relevance of the results found given the potential contribution to the limited literature on M & A in emerging markets and to the current debate about the concentration in the banking sector and its effects on the returns of the acquiring banks by empirical testing of theories have developed and promote a level for further research.